World Poverty Rate Plummets

Mark J. Perry, who now blogs at the Enterprise Blog, has posed on an article by Kevin Hasesett titled “The Poor Need Capitalism.” Pointing to a new NBER study, “Parametric Estimations of the World Distribution of Income,” Hasesett writes:

The chart [below] draws on a landmark new study by economists Maxim Pinkovskiy and Xavier Sala-i-Martin. The authors set out to study changes in the world distribution of income by gathering data from many different countries. As a byproduct of their work, they are able to count the number of individuals who live on $1 per day or less, a key measure of poverty.

According to their calculations, the number of people living in poverty so defined has plummeted, from 967,574,000 in 1970 to 350,436,000 in 2006, a decrease of a whopping 64 percent. Whence the reduction? The biggest factor is the emergence of middle classes in previously poverty stricken China and India. And the spread of capitalism to other countries has similarly been followed by prosperity. The trend is even more impressive if one considers that the world population skyrocketed over that time, increasing by 3 billion.

If the trend continues for just 40 more years, poverty will have been essentially eradicated from the globe. And capitalism will have done it. There are those who have argued that the current financial crisis has served as proof that capitalism is a failed ideology. The work of Pinkovskiy and Sala-i-Martin suggests that there are about a billion people whose lives prove otherwise.

In addition, Perry points out that the NBER paper also finds that “the world poverty rate fell by 80 percent, from 26.8 percent in 1970 to only 5.4 percent in 2006 based on the $1 per day poverty measure (see chart below). “

The study also estimates poverty rates separately for five geographical regions (see below). Check out the results for East Asia (China, Taiwan, and South Korea). In 1960, East Asia had the highest regional poverty rate in the world, at 58.8 percent, compared to 39.9 percent for Africa. 36 years later, in 2006, the poverty rate in East Asia fell to 1.7 percent, below all other developing regions.

What accounts for East Asia’s falling poverty rates? Capitalism.