Sunday, January 10, 2010

2020 Retrospective: What will the '10's be remembered for?

With the new decade, and my newly redesigned blog underway, there will be new issues that will change the landscape of the sport more drastically than the last. The rise of sports media may have changed how sports is reported, however this new decade could bring about the restructuring of leagues, networks, and even the fabric of a team. Here are the three events I foresee changing the landscape of professional sports.

3. The end of the ESPN Monopoly

ESPN has established itself as THE place to go for sports news. If a story breaks, it isn’t official until you hear about it from ESPN. Though their online presence has been eaten away by other online news sources, their television presence is unmatched. They hold the rights to broadcast three of the four major sports in the United States and hold broadcast rights for numerous NCAA events.

The reason they have this monopoly is because there hasn’t been a large enough entity to compete with ESPN and their parent company, ABC/Disney. News Corp tried launching Fox Sports Net as a national sports news network, but it unfortunately fell flat and is now a regional sports network. CBS has their own college sports network, as well as broadcast rights to the NFL and College Football and Basketball, but it doesn’t nearly have the reach as ESPN.

Ironically for ESPN, it might be the sports entity they don’t have broadcast rights to that could lead to a dramatic shift in sports on television.

The NHL sold its broadcast rights to VERSUS in 2005 after ESPN declined to match the $200 million that VERSUS offered. Since then, the network has quietly been picking up other sports properties, such as College football, College basketball, and World Extreme Cagefighting (owned by UFC). VERSUS made efforts to buy the rights to broadcast MLB games in 2006, but came up short.

On the surface, this might not seem significant, however VERSUS is owned by the cable television provider Comcast, which owns several cable television channels. In addition, they also operate Comcast SportsNet stations in various markets, including Chicago, Michigan, Philadelphia, Washington DC/Baltimore, New England, Northern and Central California, and the Pacific Northwest. On top of that, they also launched The Mtn. (based in Colorado) and SportsNet New York and are a minority partner in the MLB Network. These Comcast Sports affiliates carry FSN Sports programming and games. They also acquired the rights to broadcast NBA games locally in those markets.

Comcast’s biggest splash occurred in December of 2009, when they bought a controlling interest in NBC/Universal, giving them 51% control of NBA/Universal. This gives them tremendous influence nationwide and further increasing revenues.

If they already operate local regional sports stations, and they own a controlling interest of a major broadcast network, don’t you think that a National Sports Network is next? Three of the four major sports leagues have television contracts expiring during the next decade, and with Comcast owning a piece of NBC, the pieces are in place to create and successfully launch a large enough network to compete with ESPN the same way CNN and Fox News compete.

The difference though is that ABC/Disney is not a cable provider. On the other hand, Comcast is a growing cable provider who can get their network on everyone’s cable packages and make matters worse for other broadcast companies.

2. The Restructuring of Professional Sports Leagues

The early 2000’s saw increased revenues across the board for all four major American sports leagues. Television contracts got richer, leagues and teams found new ways to bring in revenue, and more importantly, more fans came out to the games.

In 2008, the worst financial collapse since the Great Depression of the 1930’s unfolded. Unemployment has skyrocketed in the past 24 months into double digits, and many Americans are out of work, and those that still have their jobs have much less disposable income than in the past.

Unfortunately for sports teams and leagues, less disposable income means less revenue for teams. Many teams that had been struggling to operate in good times are now deep in the red, highlighted by the Phoenix Coyotes declaring bankruptcy and being owned by the NHL. Because there’s less revenue, many of the smaller market teams simply can’t compete financially with those teams in larger markets. the disparity between the have and the have-nots is growing to where there are many more bad teams than there are good because the bad teams cannot bring in marquis players without taking a huge financial hit.

There are going to be two results I foresee happening in this decade. The first will be relocation of teams. All of the leagues saw major expansion in the 90’s and 00’s when times were good. Markets that would normally not be home to professional sports teams were given franchises of their own, even if it didn’t make much sense, such as putting a NHL franchise in Nashville. If there’s a market that can make a team financially viable, they will move there.

The NHL’s failed expansion in the southern part of the United States might be the gain of cities in the northern United States and Canada. Hockey is Canada’s biggest sport, and cities up there would be more open to supporting a hockey franchise. In addition, college hockey is popular in the Northeast and Midwestern United States, and fans in those regions could support a pro hockey team. The Winnipeg Jets, Quebec Nordiques, Hartford Whalers, and the Minnesota North Stars all relocated south, and while Minnesota has since regained a team, the other three markets remain empty even though they have more fan support than citizens in cities such as Phoenix. Many sports teams with expiring leases and low attendance will look to move their franchise in hopes of greener pastures.

The other option would be contraction. With 30 or more teams in each of the four professional sports leagues, players who would not have made a team in the 80’s, are seeing their bank accounts surpass their actual on the field talent. Teams now are less talented than they were back in the 80’s and early 90’s because the talent pool is more spread out.

Much like other businesses which have shut their doors due to financial problems, don’t be surprised if leagues decide to cut their losses and cut teams. MLB toyed with the idea of contraction in 2001 but that was ultimately shot down. With revenue and attendance down league wide for all sports, contraction could be a viable way to cut down on expenses and even improve the quality of play on the field. If teams don’t move, look for leagues to cut back and shrink the amount of teams in their respective leagues.

1. The Gay Athlete

Girls, cars, money, etc. are open topics of conversation among athletes in the locker room. Additionally, because of their wealth, athletes often find groupies throwing themselves at them, and have made the most of it. Most notably, Wilt Chaimberlain claimed to have slept with 20,000 women.

One topic of conversation that is rarely brought up publicly by athletes is the subject of homosexuality.

In the last decade, there have been more and more openly gay people in public places, including politicians and actors. This decade saw states legally recognize (and in some states ban) gay marriage. More Americans are accepting of gay people and their rights than they have been in the past.

The lone exception to this movement is in the realm of professional sports. While some athletes have come out of the closet, the majority of them don’t do so until after their playing career is done. In the four major sports, and in team sports for that matter, knowing that one of your teammates is openly gay could create some discomfort publicly among fans and privately among the team. Additionally, with sponsors wary about athletes actions off the field, being associated with a gay athlete in any way could hinder endorsement deals with companies with conservative values.

With gay people being accepted by the public, and younger players entering professional sports, there is a chance for players and coaches to be more accepting of one of their athletes being gay. Privately, they may already know. This subject was brought up in the short-lived ESPN drama “Playmakers”, in which one of the players was outed by his lover, and he eventually came out to the team. The series was canceled by ESPN, partly because of pressure by the NFL, so the end result of that will forever be unknown.

But the question remains, will an athlete in either the NFL, NBA, NHL, or MLB, come out of the closet while they are still an active player? Whichever athlete decides to be the first one to do so will be in the line of fire. It will most likely be the closest thing my generation sees to Jackie Robinson breaking the color barrier in baseball.

He will most likely lose all endorsements they have, whether it be the companies decision or if they’re pressured by public opinion. He will also have to endure some of the harshest taunting athletes will ever hear, and his personal life will become much more public. Whichever team he’s on will most likely face public backlash from fans and sponsors.

When the smoke is cleared, gay athletes will be accepted by the public like openly gay actors and politicians. The road to acceptance will be a harsh one.

[Via http://commonsensesports.com]

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